I could see a debate on whether or not Obama or the next president will give Snowden a pardon. It could be a fun market.
Or the next president? That would stretch the time period to Jan 2021, much too long I think. Let's restrict the question to Obama granting a pardon to Snowden.
Have a 2016 and then a 2017 market, and then so on. Seems reasonable enough to me.
Salvia, because the pardon is a purely presidential act and the president's term run to Jan 2017, I would connect the question to one president and his or her term. It wouldn't make a difference if Snowden is pardoned by Obama in Dec 2016 or in Jan 2017. That said, my money would be on NO.
. . . I think Chelsea Manning's chances to be pardoned are much better: she has been sentenced and partially sat in prison for it, and her sentences seem much too long for what she did as Brad Manning.
I really wish they'd add this; although, maybe it is immoral to be placing money on a person's life like this?
Al, strictly speaking, we would bet on the action of the president (or governor in state cases). The outcome for the person would not be object of the bet, because the pardoned could even reject the pardon, as it has occasionally happened (accepting the pardon means also admitting the guilt). But, yes, it can feel a bit amoral to bet money on a human fate.