I think theres a slight chance Obama might have been born in Kenya or Indonesia and his birth certificate is fake. I would like to see a market for this in case theres an investigation.
What should be the end time for such a bet? 5 years from now? 10 years?
. . . Until Jan 20, 2017, all skeptics will be laughed out of the room, because it means attacking the Democratic president in a highly partisan election and transition environment. Afterwords few will care, to investigate or even to read about it. Who would pay for a reputable investigation? PredictIt would risk some of its reputation by placing such bets upon a questionable investigation..
. . . Personally, I find it highly unlikely that a young American first-time mother would react to her unexpected pregnancy by travelling from Hawaii where she's been living for years with her parents to the father's foreign country with questionable medical system in the last trimester of the pregnancy. It doesn't make sense to me.