Before December 31st, 2017?
Before January 3, 2019?
Or not at all?
Before January 3, 2019.
But Dec 31, 2108 would be as good.
I like the bet, but its outcome would be affected majorly by who will be next president. I would pose the question after the general election in Nov 2016.
. . . What would be the criteria for a "major" immigration reform?
- One minimum is the legalization of the status of illegal immigrants who have been in the US longer than a certain time and have not committed crimes. How long would the certain time need to be to make it a real reform? 5 years, 2 years, or only 1 year? They will probably have to pay administrative processing fees, but the fees can't be excessive for making the reform effective, maybe not over $1000?
- Is it only a reform if the new status becomes citizenship, or is permitted residence and work sufficient?
I thought part of the reason the question is interesting is because it can give important information to inform the election. If it were a conditional bet on a Democratic Presidential victory, then the question could filter out the effect of the the presidential election but start giving useful and interesting information before all the way in November. The time limits I proposed represented the first year of the 115th Congress and the end of the same Congress.
I think the most accurate criteria would just be legislation that is referred to as "comprehensive reform" by its advocates or by newspapers. When previous comprehensive reform bills have been proposed (see 2013, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2005, etc.) they either explicitly included the word "comprehensive" in the title or were so overwhelmingly referred to as comprehensive by the media and by politicians that it was unambiguous that they were considered comprehensive reform bills. More concretely: a comprehensive bill contains provisions to reform enforcement, legal immigration, and the status of at least some illegal immigrants within a single bill.