I WILL BET BIG ON THIS. Please do at least one of these. This market will be huge. Most current Trump fans will take these bets, and the rest of us are eager to take their money :)
"Will Trump complete his full term" or
"Will Trump be president on 1/19/21?" (the day before the next president takes office), or
"Will Trump be re-elected as president in 2020?"
I would also like to see a market that goes the next step.
Will XXX be sworn in as POTUS before 20 Jan 2020?
It appears that traders think that the next US President is likely to take office before 2020, but there are currently no markets on who that will be. Since it's not entirely clear how Trump might depart, his successor is also not obvious. Pence will obviously be the heavy favorite for now, but that could certainly change--suddenly. Interest might be tepid for now, but waiting to create the market risks missing the enormous interest that might appear overnight.
An alternative approach would be a market on who the next POTUS inaugurated (sworn in) will be. That market might not expire until 2020, when Trump would be one of the possibilities. If Trump is still in office in mid-2019, then the market would be redundant with any 2020 election markets.
My personal preference would be the first approach, since the non-zero-sum market adds an additional level of intrigue. Either one would be welcome, though. Anyone agree?
Any decision from the committee on this? The existing markets price events that are still fundamentally different from Trump's completing a full term; and a broader scope should create greater liquidity.
Re: Andrew Windsor - This was posted a few months ago before either of the now existing markets were opened.
Re: WonderWoody - The expectation here is that Trump would step down due to either scandal or because he just doesn't want to be president anymore. How likley either event is for the markets to decide.
Re: Nick - Yes! Both markets are really well thought out. Cheers!
Thank you very much for the suggestions! I will pass it along to our markets committee right away for future consideration.
As a side note, we do have some existing markets similar to what you're discussing in case you're interested in trading in them:
please add this market. "will Trump be president on 1/19/21."
Do either of you know how to bet on this right now with a differently worded market? You could tell me after you've bought up all the shares you want of course.
Yes, seconded. There will be a lot of speculation for his first year. Anything could happen.