Rumors have begun swirling about FBI investigations of Pres. Trump. Some of these also implicate VP Pence and others in the line of succession. People who buy into these conspiracy theories (myself included) now believe that there is a significant likelihood that someone other than Trump or Pence could become POTUS before Jan 20, 2020.
Please create one or more related markets to allow other PredictIt traders to take my money. If you prefer to create separate markets for each potential successor, then top possibilities (excluding Pence) are:
In particular, there are rumors swirling about Hatch receiving security briefings. These are unverified and their significance questionable, but some have inferred that his chance of becoming President is not trivial.
Separate markets, e.g.
"Orrin Hatch to be inaugurated as POTUS before the end of 2018"
would have the advantage of and end date before 2024, and the potential for one or more to expire sooner. However, interest in most such markets could quickly and unpredictably.
I suggest instead creating a single market on Trump's successor. This would expire at 0 or with "None" as winner at the end date if Trump has remained in office until that time. I'm not exactly what title to use. Names to include should include those high in the order of succession.
"POTUS to succeed Trump before end of 2018."
--None [could be an explicit option to allow NO buyers to assess odds]
Thanks as always for the suggestions! I will pass this along to our markets committee for future consideration.
PredictIt Support Team