Could be interesting to predict which year/fiscal quarter next market correction will happen. You could define market correction as a decrease to 90% of the $SPX's all-time high. Would be nice to have some more economic predictions on here.
It needs to be related to political events, for such a market to be considered. They can only do politically-related markets, not economic ones, by law.
What about if Pi did a market for the $SPX or DJIA price change the week after the midterm election?
It could be called "What effect will the election have on the economy?"
And the inclusion of stock value reference as the determiner would only be a technicality in the rules behind it. They could take the initial value of the SPX a couple days before Nov. 6, and the value a week after (after it's settled down from any fluctuations), and minus them to get the difference.
The brackets could be
up 4% or more
down 4% or more
Wow, that sounds really interesting...
...Are you listening, Pi?
I did not know it is illegal to make a prediction market for economic events. I am very surprised to hear that, because on PredictIt's "About -> What is PredictIt?" page they open with "PredictIt is an exciting new, real money site that tests your knowledge of political and financial events by letting you make and trade predictions on the future". That was the reason I made this market suggestion in the first place.
wow, that is a funny thing.. you should ask them about that... yeah, they Never do any financial mkts ever