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Mechanics of buying a 'No' contract

I have a question.  To give some background, let's consider this market:


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms


There are two contracts:

Dem

GOP


You can Buy 'NO' on the Dem contract for 31c.

You can Buy 'NO' on the GOP contract for 66c.


What if I bought both contracts?

31 + 66 = 97 cents.


Shouldn't one of the contracts (at least one of them) settle to a 'No'?

Thus, would I not be receiving $1 for sure?


Maybe I am not understanding the mechanics, or there are additional considerations that I don't know.


Thank you in advance.


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crickets... I have same question

You pay commission on the winning contract, not the net win.  That eats up the arbitrage opportunity.


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You pay commission on the winning contract, not the net win.  That eats up the arbitrage opportunity.


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Yes, you would earn 3 cents, as I understand it.

There appears to also be a hidden third option if a tie occurs due to a representative that is an independent or doesn't caucus with the two parties.
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