Can we get a market up for whether the government shuts down on Friday, Feb 15?
Use the OPM status (as you did for the 2nd Shutdown market) as the indicator. I don't believe the issue with the fluke one off status should disqualify that as the simplest measurable bar. (FYI) I lost a fair amount on this initially (as it should be implied) until switching after realizing being a bitter clinger was futile (rules state site will literally say 1 thing otherwise no). Otherwise, you're waiting for the market to resolve 1 yr after the date in question.