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Sugestion: Will the results of Maine's 2020 senate general election be non-monotonic?

Maine recently adapted instant runoff voting (also called ranked choice voting).


Instant runoff voting is known to be non-monotonic, where ranking a candidate higher on your ballot could cause them to lose and ranking them lower on your ballot could cause them to win.


More about non-monotonicty: https://www.electionscience.org/library/monotonicity/


An example of a non-monotonic election result: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmP81NW9_O0


The most famous example of a monotonicty failure in a US election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Burlington_mayoral_election


Non-monotonicity of IRV visualized: http://zesty.ca/voting/sim/


Unlike most places that use IRV, Maine releases full results, thus it will be possible to calculate whether each of their IRV election results were monotonic.


This market should only resolve to true if one of the fallowing can be proved to be true:


1. There was a set of ballots of which had those ballots ranked the winner higher without changing the order of the rankings among the other candidates, that candidate would have lost the election.


2. There was a set of ballots of which had those ballots ranked another candidate lower without changing the order of the rankings among the other candidates, that candidate would have won the election.


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