1.) Will the Russian Ruble be worth more by February 28th, 2015 than on February 1st, 2015?
* A yes vote will mean that the exchange rate at the end of February will result in less rubles per dollar than at the start of the month. A no vote will mean that the exchange rate will yield more rubles per dollar than at the start of the month.
** Due to sanctions against Russia by the west, the Ruble has been in drastic fluctuation, making this economic indicator a widely speculative, yet possibly guessed trend via sound economic and political theories.
2.) Will the rebels in Eastern Ukraine and the self declared Peoples Republic of Donetsk capture the port city of Mariupol by March?
* A yes vote will mean that the rebels would have occupied the government buildings and central square of the city for more than 1 day by March 1st. A no vote will mean that the rebels would not have held the city for more than 1 day.
3.) Will Germany continue its economic sanctions against the Russian Federation past the month of March?
* A yes vote will mean that Germany will publicly continue its policy of sanctions against Russia by the end of March. A no vote will mean that Germany will make a public declaration of revoking the sanctions and resuming official economic trade with Russia by the end of march
4.) Will the Russian Federation invade the country of Ukraine with its armed forces by March?
* A yes vote will mean that the Russian military will make an open and official declaration of war against the country of Ukraine and move physical troops into Ukraine, bomb the territory of Ukraine, or do any other offensive military maneuver within the territory of Ukraine by March
Questions can be adjusted for clarity and productivity.
Excellent set of questions. I'd love to predict some of these!
My sense is that question 3 is a bit flawed. The current set of EU sanctions require unanimity, so it isn't really possible for just Germany to shut them down. Maybe the question could be set up to ask about the food sanctions that the Russians have imposed in retaliation:
"Will Russia drop the August of 2014 sanctions on agricultural goods imposed against any EU country by March 31st, 2015."
This lets the agent of action be a single nation (Russia) but doesn't specify which country might get exempted (any in the EU.) Russia just negotiated a deal with the EU a few weeks ago that allows them to pick and choose which countries to drop their agricultural sanctions against.
I think you're absolutely right. That would be a good one to bet on.
Let's hope they introduce some more world affairs questions - that's where the real volatility is!
Elections in Turkey coming up. Could be quite interesting.
Number 1 doesn't need to be on PreictIt. You can already back out the expectation of that question from financial market data.