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Sports

 Sports or something similar to that HAS TO be added here, or some other short events based in the the outcome of something at the end of the week.


Maybe convert it to something like Prop betting as well.


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Sports prediction markets do exist, but "the FEDS", as you put it, do not allow US residents to use them.  Tradesports did offer both sports and political prediction markets 20 years ago, and Betfair continues to offer both for residents of many countries.  After UIGEA was passed in 2006, Tradesports was forced to separate its sports prediction markets from the political (and miscellaneous event) markets, which became Intrade.  In the end, that was still not enough to keep Intrade alive.  They foolishly included economic markets that were essentially duplicates of futures contracts, and the CFTC response ended up killing the political markets, as well.



If you want to lobby your Congressman to repeal UIGEA, more power to you.  Better yet, try to get the US presidential campaigns to publicly support this.  (I assume that Johnson already does!) There have also been some efforts to develop intra-state markets in (at least) California and Nevada, although I'm not sure how active any of these are now.  As long as UIGEA exists in its current form, adding sports contracts at PredictIt is very likely to be fatal for this site, at least within the USA.  Please do us all a favor and pursue this request elsewhere, rather than risking this wonderful market.




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It's a bummer that the FEDS continue to protect an inefficient, brick-and-mortar system. Sports prediction markets would absolutely thrive and have more correct odds than sports books currently offer. Think of a simple event like who would be the next NCAA basketball champion. The fact that bettors cannot buy low and sell high at any time before the event is ridiculous. The lack of arbitrage and true market dynamics produces a slow, inaccurate price. The moneyline tends to be pretty good and fluid, but a dynamic prediction market would offer an even more accurate odds and point spreads. Plus there would be so many fascinating prop bets that I'd love to know the odds of. Existing regulation continues to protect the Vegas sportsbooks, who want sports betting illegal. The model is ripe for disruption.

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The only reason this site exists in the first place is because the CFTC granted permission with this no-action letter: http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@lrlettergeneral/documents/letter/14-130.pdf


This means that the site is currently bound to the operating parameters discussed in the document, and this won't change unless the law changes.


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What about sports milestones that maybe accomplished during that season or during the game they are playing... or how many hits during the week... how many homeruns, catches, goals, free throws, etc. so on and so on... it could be great for this site.

There are certain limitations to the types of questions that site can put up. Sports is in the category of things that are not allowed. Other limitations include questions about war or terrorism.


Sports would be amusing.  I do wish there were smaller, more frequent, trades.  Like the Jobs report or if the price per gallon will go up or down within a  week, etc.  But then maybe that would be TOO much, like the High-Frequency Trading, and distort the system......


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RE: "how can you NOT have the obligatory "Who will win the Super Bowl?" question."
my bet?

FEDS

[all other reasons are bush!t;]


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I agree, how can you NOT have the obligatory "Who will win the Super Bowl?"  question.  if a sociological category, if nothing else.  yes there are plenty of sports related sites that do this, but Super Bowl transcends sports.  literally 150 Million people in the U.S. alone watch it.


at that end, there need to be a lot more entertainment-type questions, don't there?   like will Letterman still be doing TV in 2016.. all that stuff.


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Yes I like the idea of staggered outcomes. Not a fan of sports questions if it involves the game results. Perhaps questions around the Olympics would be interesting. Who wins the most gold. How many world records broken. Stuff not normal for Las Vegas Sports Book.


 


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I don't agree with you completely Igo. There are already bookies providing probabilities for sporting events. Honestly, I think it would distort the experiment to have events without political and social impact (sports) combined in the same market with major electoral and geopolitical events. 


But your suggestion about "an outcome a week" is really smart. Right now the outcomes are all clustered at the end of the year or end of March. Picking questions so that at least one question expires each week would generate more trade turnover and predictor visits to the website. 


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