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Climate Markets


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This includes the keystone pipeline approval, which is an event of the executive branch making a determination about a non-election event.


The Goddard Institute for Space Studies is a branch of NASA, which is a branch of the executive branch. Every month they publish the global land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, here:


http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt


See what I'm getting at?


Binary markets could be monthly, quarterly, and annual (even multi-annual) temp anomalies to be greater than, .40, .45, .50, .55, etc...


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Cool idea Supak!  There's also the Global Temperature Report at University of Huntsville Alabama if we want a data series not connected with the federal government. 


http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/




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The UAH record isn't government related, and PredictIt has told me that they are only allowed to have political markets. That's why I'm suggesting that since the Keystone Pipeline would be an executive decision (unless congress can override the veto), then NASA's record on the GISS temp (which is part of the executive branch) would qualify as a political market, while Spencer's would not.


Also, if I'm not mistaken, HadCRUT is a governmental organization in the UK, which could also be considered "political." 


And, The Japan Meteorological Agency is a part of the Japanese government, and they keep a global temp record as well. 


So does NOAA.


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Global temperature markets (based on determinations by NASA, NOAA and/or other govt agencies) would have great educational value, demonstrating the willingness or unwillingness of people to back up their positions on this important issue. I teach a large course on climate change at a (state) university in which I would certainly make use of this market.


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Alan, I tweet at Predictit every time a new GISS temp anomaly comes out (monthly), and every time we get an ice event, like minimum arctic sea ice extent (Univ of CO?) or anything else that would make a good market. Intrade had a last-named storm of Atlantic hurricane season, central park NYC yearly snowfall.... lots of others.



Speculating on monthly/yearly temperatures, the raw measurement for which are massively (and necessarily) processed/worked, is hardly "putting one's money where one's mouth is", but it would still be useful to try and predict Government Agencies actions. For instance NOAA massively overhauling their methodology a few months back.


The Keystone Pipeline is even better. Purely political/government action. Lets try an predict it.

How about California earthquake above a certain number before year end? 

The GISStemp markets at InTrade were very popular.  I was always surprised by the trade volume they attracted.  The year-end markets (on the average anomaly) were among the most active markets on the site, except in the Fall of a presidential election year.  I'm not so sure that PredictIt would be comfortable calling this a political contract, though, despite the complex data processing involved and the politicized controversy surrounding it.


The Keystone Pipeline approval is a much cleaner contract that would certainly generate some interest. The lack of a definitive end date could dampen interest, though.  Traders might be reluctant to hold KEYSTONE.NO contracts for months between any market-driving news.  Still, worth a try IMO.


A CA earthquake market would be handy, since I could use it to hedge against the risk of me falling into the sea.  I'm pretty sure that this would be nixed as not "political" and hence potentially running afoul of the CFTC.


Can we get a PredictIt response on this? These types of markets sound great. 

Hi there everyone,


Thank you very much for the suggestions! I will pass it along to our markets committee for future consideration.


Thanks,

Nick

PredictIt Support

Thank you, nbougie. If you want to contact me about ideas for linked markets, I can help and send you to experts who would be willing to help more than I could. 

Also, guys, if you ever want to see things I wish I could bet on, just check out #ThingsIWishICouldBetOn at Twitter. 

I think short term(1-4 year) climate markets would be a great idea for the site. One problem is that the outcome of these bets may affect the value of dollars. I think for longer term bets we need to think in terms of trading a mutual fund like longbets.org does
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