I think this is a great topic for a prediction market. Political Party's chances of victory could be the question. Or specific frontrunner candidates' chances of victory (such as Mike Tagert's chances or Trent Kelly's chances) would also be interesting. I'm very interested in participating in this sort of market, and with so few US elections happening now, I bet many others would be interested.
Might as well add the special election in NY-11 as well, to replace the State Island congressman who resigned