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How about Predictit sets up its own Polling average?

By now we've all seen how all over the place RCP can be when selecting what polls to use, and when to update them.  Why couldn't Predictit set up its own average, following its own rules we all can see? It specifies what polls it will use, times they update etc.  All of the polls are public anyway we are just at the mercy of RCP when and if they update them.  This way the rules for the markets involving polling averages are available for everyone.  Just a thought. 


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Make it set rules like have to be updated within 30 days. Use x amount of polls. Maybe even make a list of the possible polls it will use. I think the main thing is this would get rid of idea of insider trading also.

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I think you could specify it down to a list of polls that predictit uses for various markets. All polls on the list released during the day are updated to the average by 3pm eastern (a specified time). I guess one of the problems with that may be how there are some polls that are performed so infrequently, it may be difficult to get it to a diverse list of polls that way. A regulated polling average would be better than the RCP gamble

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Crap, I accidentally posted my own thread asking this same thing earlier today (awaiting moderation). But I could not agree more.


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Good thought, but I think its a bad idea.  Its much better to use a 3rd party poll


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Yes, an actual published policy about what polls will be used would be more helpful than the criteria RCP doesn't tell us.






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