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Here is how to do the Obama approval markets fairly going forward

The average approval percentage for Obama of the four polls below shall be at least X%, rounded to the first decimal, at 11:59:59 PM Eastern Time on June 26, 2015.



The 'Approve' percentage for the most recent date found at www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx as of 11:59:59 PM EST June 26th.

The 'Total Approve' percentage for the most recent date found at www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history as of 11:59:59 PM EST June 26th.

The 'Total Approve' Registered Voters percentage for the 'Approval of Obama as President' question in the most recent 'Weekly Political Tracking Report'

found at https://today.yougov.com/publicopinion/archive/?year=&month=&category=economist as of 11:59:59 PM EST June 26th.

The 'TOTAL APPROVE' percentage found in the most recent 'Core Political Approval' toplines found at www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/reuters-polls/ as of 11:59:59 PM EST June 26th. 


5 people like this idea

I totally agree with Justin. I think there is a lot of fun to be had in having an average of polls. The problem with RCP is that there was no guarantee that polls would be posted on a regular basis. What Justin is proposing is that Predict It create it's own average - by using the 4 major polls that update regularly: Rasmussen and Gallup are daily and Reuters and YouGov are weekly.


This would bring back the fun, challenge, volume, and volatility in figuring out possible averages at the end of the week, while simultaneously preventing any issues of employees at RCP forgetting (or purposely failing) to update a poll in their average after it gets released by the polling company. It would also guarantee that a poll does not get dropped arbitrarily. 


2 people like this

I like the variance.

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