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Electoral Vote

How about a market on what the electoral votes will be for the Democratic and Republican nominees?


1 person likes this idea

I agree that this would be an interesting market.  It would certainly generate a lot of interest as November approaches.  My guess is that it would be much more popular than any of the markets for individual states, and certainly more than those on the total number of Senate or House seats.


There are already "landslide" markets for D > 370 and R > 370 that could be merged into a single market.  At the moment, the consensus estimate is between 270 and 370 EV for Clinton, so adding multiple contracts within that range would help generate trade volume.  How about:


  D > 370

  D 351 - 370

  D 331 - 350

  D 311 - 330

  D 291 - 310

  D 270 - 290

  R 269 - 290

  R 291 - 310

  R 311 - 330

  R 331 - 350

  R 351 - 370


Larger increments could also work, e.g.:

  D > 370

  D 331 - 370

  D 291 - 330

  D 270 - 290

  R 269 - 290

  R 291 - 330

  R 331 - 370


I suggest these brackets instead:


D 380+

D 360 - 379

D 340 - 359

D 320 - 339

D 300 - 319

D 280 - 299

No party wins more than 279

No party wins more than 269??  (allows for ties or 3rd party surprises, but maybe too unlikely...)

R 280 - 299

R 300 - 319

etc.


This has two major advantages:

-- It avoids duplicating the already existing 370+ EV markets

-- It introduces are market brackets for traders who believe the election will be very close, without requiring the traders to name to actual winner (similar to a "margin of victory" market, but with electoral votes instead).  That same bracket also might be used as a hedge for traders betting one specific party to win or lose.

I suggest these brackets instead:


D 380+

D 360 - 379

D 340 - 359

D 320 - 339

D 300 - 319

D 280 - 299

No party wins more than 279

No party wins more than 269??  (allows for ties or 3rd party surprises, but maybe too unlikely...)

R 280 - 299

R 300 - 319

etc.


This has two major advantages:

-- It avoids duplicating the already existing 370+ EV markets

-- It introduces are market brackets for traders who believe the election will be very close, without requiring the traders to name to actual winner (similar to a "margin of victory" market, but with electoral votes instead).  That same bracket also might be used as a hedge for traders betting one specific party to win or lose.

 


1 person likes this

Those brackets do account for other possibilities.  I agree that the no party >269 seems unlikely at this point, but who knows.  I would suggest splitting the <279 category into two separate categories, D 270-279 and R 270-279. 

          ...

D 320 - 339

D 300 - 319

D 280 - 299

D 270 - 279

Neither D nor R receives >269 EV

R 270 - 279

R 280 - 299

R 300 - 319

          ...


A slight downside of this is that anyone who wanted to bet on a close election without picking the winner would have to buy two contracts instead of one.  If the election winds up being very close, there might be a lot of traders predicting a close win for one candidate or the other.  


I agree that the middle market (neither >269) might not attract much interest, but it still seems worth including in order to link all the contracts.

           


Are the 3 of us the only ones interested in creating this contract series?  This thread has turned into a detailed discussion of the bracket details, but is the market going to be created at all?


Those brackets do account for other possibilities.  I agree that the no party >269 seems unlikely at this point, but who knows.  I would suggest splitting the <279 category into two separate categories, D 270-279 and R 270-279. 

          ...

D 320 - 339

D 300 - 319

D 280 - 299

D 270 - 279

Neither D nor R receives >269 EV

R 270 - 279

R 280 - 299

R 300 - 319

          ...


A slight downside of this is that anyone who wanted to bet on a close election without picking the winner would have to buy two contracts instead of one.  If the election winds up being very close, there might be a lot of traders predicting a close win for one candidate or the other.  


I agree that the middle market (neither >269) might not attract much interest, but it still seems worth including in order to link all the contracts.

           


Are the 3 of us the only ones interested in creating this contract series?  This thread has turned into a detailed discussion of the bracket details, but is the market going to be created at all?


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