Will GOP delegates override the will of the voters?
started a topic
over 3 years ago
The GOP reserves the right to nominate anyone at the convention. If Trump wins the nomination, it would be interesting to see if the establishment overrules the will of the voters and elects someone else to lead their party in the general election. I don't think Trump will win so I think this will be a non-starter, but if he wins I think there is a chance this could happen.
I think there are some better bets here with more clear criteria by which they could be judged:
candidate is selected with more than 1 round of voting at the convention. This has not happened for a while(but used to be more frequent).
super delegates and other delegate differ in which candidate they give a plurality of their votes on the first ballot
super delegates and other delegate differ in which candidate they give a plurality of their votes on the last ballot
if c happens superdelegates back the winning candidate with a majority.
superdelegates back the winning candidate with a majority regardless of c)
non-superdelegates back winner with a majority
the eventual winner is the candidate getting the most superdelegate votes on the first ballot
These bets taken together tell you a lot about convention dynamics.
over 3 years ago
I think better bets:
a) superdelegates and non-superdelegates differ markedly in how they vote for the winning candidate
b) no winner in the first round of convention voting
c) a bet on a candidate being chosen without a majority of the superdelegates.
Just so understand: super delegates are the part "old guard". Overriding them is rare and would be a big deal. Non superdelegates are selected largely under the advice of the campaigns.