A lot. A pollster estimates the percentage of the vote a candidate might win on election day. Players on PredictIt estimate the chance that a candidate will win the election. For example, a candidate in a two-person contest might be leading her opponent 60% to 40% in the polls. Candidates who are leading by a margin this large almost always go on to win. Consequently, PredictIt may show a probability for the leading candidate of 95% or higher.
What’s the difference, in an election, between the chance a candidate will win and projected results from pollsters?
Modified on: Sun, 7 Jun, 2015 at 9:14 PM
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